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Key Findings on the
Impacts of Tiers 1 and 2
Migration in the
UK...... |
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Recent Immigration
News
:-
Practitioner's
Comments on UK
Immigration
Policy
:
18 November 2010:-
Key findings on
the impacts of
Tiers 1 and 2
migration
The Migration
Advisory
Committee (MAC)
today published
its report on
the limits for
tiers 1 and 2 of
the Points Based
System.
MAC’s report
however consists
of a lot more
than just
recommendations
for the limits
for 2011-2012.
Instead it goes
on to dish up
proposals for
reforming tiers
1 and 2 of the
PBS with a view
to meeting those
limits. It also
of course
represents a
welcome addition
to the existing
literature on
the impacts of
immigration on
the UK.
MAC’s
recommendations
are based on the
Government’s
objective of
reducing overall
net migration to
an annual level
of tens of
thousands by the
end of the
Parliament. As
such they have
been tasked with
finding a way to
do this. The
Financial Times
reports that the
Cabinet is due
to meet next
week with a view
to deciding upon
these.
Key findings on
the impacts of
Tiers 1 and 2
migration
Whilst there
remain
difficulties
with statistics
upon which
analysis is
based, employing
an
average/aggregate
approach to
quantification
MAC finds:
1. All things
being equal, T1/
2 migration
clearly has a
positive impact
on Gross
Domestic Product
(GDP)
2. T1 and T2
make a small but
positive
contribution to
GDP per head.
3. The above
effects will
accumulate over
time and become
more
significant.
4. The impact on
GDP per head
will also be
influenced by
dynamic factors
such as the
impact of
migration on
productivity,
trade,
investment and
skill
development of
resident
workers.
5. There is no
evidence, at the
aggregate level,
of adverse
labour market
impacts.
5. T 1/2
migrants, in the
short term at
least, and on
average, almost
certainly make a
positive net
fiscal
contribution.
6. T 1/ 2
migrants, and
their
dependants, do
consume public
services, such
as health and
education
services. They
also contribute
to the provision
of key services
as members of
the workforce.
7. The impact of
T1/T2 migrants
on broader
outcomes
affecting the
whole of
society, such as
crime,
congestion and
housing, is
difficult to
estimate.
Through their
effect in adding
to the UK
population they
will inevitably
have an effect
on such
outcomes. The
impact per head
is likely to be
smaller than
that of the
migrant
population as a
whole in
relation to some
impacts, such as
crime. In
relation to
others, such as
congestion, it
may be larger.
MAC acknowledges
that its
approach
(aggregate/averages)
is
representative
of the majority
of evidence
available, as
such it obscures
for example the
fact that there
is some evidence
that T1 and T2
migrants have
displaced some
UK workers in
the IT industry
even though
quantitative
evidence for the
labour market as
a whole does not
generally show
that migrants
displace
resident
workers, and
that not all T1
and T2 make
positive net
fiscal
contributions.
Recommendations
for limits for
2011-2012
Speaking today
Professor
Metcalf said
that yearly net
migration will
need to be cut
by 146,000 in
order to reduce
migration to
tens of
thousands. As
workers make up
20% of non- EU
migrants each
year, they
should
contribute 20%
of the cut but
that students
who account for
60% would also
need to be cut
accordingly
given that it
would not be
possible to meet
the target by
limiting work
based migration
alone.
Accordingly MAC
recommends:
1. a reduction
of between 6,300
and 12,600 visas
split across T
1/2 to be issued
in 2011/12.
2. Limit for out
of country T1
General and T 2
combined is
37,400- 43,700
(excludes
dependants
in-country
switchers and
extenders, with
the possible
exception of
those switching
from T 2 routes
whose previous
visa duration
was below 12
months.) The
limit is
calculated on
the basis that
all visas,
including those
of less than 12
months are
covered by it.
3. if visas
lasting for less
than 12 months
are excluded,
the levels of
the limits need
to be adjusted
to account for
this.
4. In the medium
to long term
T1/2 extensions,
switching and
settlement may
also have a
significant
impact on net
migration and
may need to be
addressed.
Recommendations
for tier 1
1. For T 1
General route a
reduction in the
number of entry
clearance visas
issued, compared
to 2009, in the
range of 3,150
to 6,300; and a
limit on the
number of Tier 1
entry clearance
visas in the
range of 8,000
to 11,100 and
2. periodic
recalibration of
T1 General
points table in
order to select
the most skilled
migrants; and
3. introduction
of a requirement
of being
employed in
skilled
graduate-level
occupations at
the extension
stage.
4. revision of
the method for
updating the
multipliers and
putting in place
new salary
multipliers as
quickly as
possible.
Recommendations
for tier 2
1. reduction in
the number of
entry clearance
visas issued,
compared to
2009, in the
range of 3,150
to 6,300; and a
limit on the
number of Tier 2
entry clearance
visas in the
range of 29,400
to 32,600 in
2011/12 (this
limit excludes
extensions,
switchers and
dependants but
see below).
2. exclusion of
T 2 visas issued
for less than 12
months duration
from the limits
on the
assumption that:
• such
short-term
migrants will
not be permitted
to switch
in-country to
other
work-related
routes; or • if
T2 migrants are
permitted to
switch
in-country to
other routes,
the in-country
visas issued in
these cases
count towards
the (otherwise
out-of country)
limits on T 1
and 2;
3. changing the
points
calibration for
T 2 so that only
skilled migrants
can come to the
UK under this
tier;
4. scaling down
the allowances
used for points
purposes in
relation to the
required points
for earnings for
intra company
transfers;
5. application
of criteria at
the extension
stage for
intra-company
transfers that
are more
stringent than
those applied at
the point of
initial entry;
6. strengthening
the RLMT route
through the
introduction of
a certification
regime
7. asking MAC to
reconsider the
criteria used to
identify skilled
occupations
under the
shortage
occupation
route, and to
rigorously
review the
occupations
currently on the
shortage
occupation list
in the context
of the limits.
Other options
MAC thought that
the options
below would not
have major
impacts on t1/t2
migration but
that the
Government
should consider
them in the
longer term.
These are:
1. putting in
place
arrangements to
auction a
portion of those
visas included
within future
annual limits
and;
2. reviewing
policy in
relation to
settlement and;
3. considering
whether explicit
economic
criteria should
be applied to
decisions
regarding
whether or not
migrants are
allowed to
settle
permanently in
the UK. (JCWI
Publication)
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